True pressures on trusts not being reflected in statistics

A briefing for MPs and peers from NHS Providers shows why national NHS statistics do not reflect the true pressures on the health service, underlining the need for caution in considering coronavirus restrictions.

Published as MPs prepare to debate and vote on the government's proposed new tiered restrictions, the briefing says that although national level data on bed occupancy and hospital demand may appear to be manageable, this is not a good guide to the pressures on the NHS.

It explains why running a hospital is much more difficult and complex than normal due to coronavirus, because of the pressing need to treat three sets of patients: those with coronavirus; those caught in the backlog of planned care; and tthose requiring emergency treatment.

NHS Providers says that trusts face difficult challenges in managing these competing priorities, which are not captured in the national data on demand and bed occupancy. For example, slower or disrupted planned surgery caused by limited theatre space, time consuming donning and doffing of personal protective equipment (PPE), and the need to convert elective surgery recovery wards to treat coronavirus patients.

The briefing also tackles misconceptions about the figures for intensive care units and the use of Nightingale hospitals, which were always intended as a last resort insurance policy to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed. NHS Providers says that the figures for intensive care units (ICUs) are not a good indicator of hospital pressures because they only account for a small proportion of a hospital's total bed base, and many more coronavirus patients are now being treated on general wards without the need for ventilators.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said: "It's important that MPs understand the true extent of pressures faced by the NHS as they consider the new tiered restrictions. National statistics tell only part of the story. In reality the situation for trusts is much more difficult. Trust leaders understand only too well the impact of these restrictions on people's livelihoods and liberties and on their mental health.

"Vaccines, therapeutic drugs and mass scale rapid turnaround testing offer a clear way out of this next spring. But there is an immediate need to get through winter, avoiding a damaging third surge in infections with the virus, and ensuring the NHS is able to provide appropriate high quality care for all patients, Covid and non-Covid.”