At least six trusts could be overwhelmed this winter

New analysis suggests that more than 100 NHS trusts in England could be at or above full capacity this winter if they faced a second wave of coronavirus admissions on top of the usual seasonal workload.

The Guardian compared each trust’s 2019/20 winter capacity against the number of beds they needed for coronavirus patients in April, when an average of 16,000 beds were required for coronavirus patients per day, and May, by which time lockdown and physical distancing had reduced the number requiring hospitalisation.

Carried out in collaboration with Edge Health, the analysis suggested that if NHS England experienced April levels of the virus pressure on top of normal winter pressures, 107 of 132 trusts (81 per cent) would have fewer beds than were available to them last winter, with 46 trusts exceeding capacity by 110 per cent or more. If they reach May’s level, 79 of 132 trusts (60 per cent) could reach capacity with seven trusts oversubscribed by at least 10 per cent compared with last year.

In either scenario, six trusts could be overwhelmed - meaning that some NHS hospitals would struggle to accommodate all seriously ill patients needing admission.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said: “These figures illustrate the point that trust leaders have strongly made over each of the last five winters – that there is insufficient acute bed capacity, and community capacity, to deal with winter demand. That’s not entirely surprising after a near decade of the longest and deepest funding squeeze in NHS history, when the NHS has been unable to grow its capacity to meet rising demand because it simply can’t afford to. We also know that our bed capacity is run at much higher levels of occupancy – often at 95 per cent or higher – than in other comparable European countries.

Niall Dickson, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, which represents organisations across the healthcare sector, said: “We are worried and our members are worried. The NHS faces a collision of pressures this winter and this feels very much like the calm before the storm. It is not just the usual winter pressures, nor even just the very real concern about another spike which could disrupt efforts to restore services. The reality is that those delivering frontline services are having to work with significant infection control measures to contain the virus, including PPE and social distancing both of which reduce productivity. They are also having to cope with staff shortages and, frankly, there are some pretty exhausted clinical and support staff who have managed through this traumatic period.”

The analysis excluded extra capacity provided through Nightingale hospitals or the private sector due to a lack of available data.