Services will take over a year to return to full capacity

Almost half of physician specialties, including cardiology, gastroenterology and rheumatology, expect to be working at less than previous pre-coronavirus activity levels for at least 12 months or more.

The Royal College of Physicians asked 19 medical specialties in England to estimate what capacity they expect to be working at over the next 12 months compared with pre-coronavirus activity levels. Eight of them expect to be working under capacity for the foreseeable future.

Doctors say that this is, in part, due to the time it takes for the extra infection prevention and control measures to be carried out, all of which have been put in place to reduce the spread of the virus and reduce nosocomial infection. For example, doctors are conducting fewer procedures due to the time it takes to don and doff PPE before and after each procedure, the need to implement social distancing to protect patients and staff, and the need for more regular cleaning of spaces between patient visits.

Coronavirus has also meant that patients recovering from infection will also need the on-going support of NHS services, especially in respiratory medicine, rehabilitation medicine, renal medicine and clinical psychology. This is additional activity compared to pre-Covid times.

Specialty leaders in respiratory medicine and gastroenterology expect it to take two years to recover from the backlog, while those in cardiology are expecting it to take 18–21 months.

Andrew Goddard, president of the Royal College of Physicians, said: “We cannot underestimate the extent of the work that still lies ahead for the NHS workforce, and the very real possibility of further Covid-19 outbreaks and additional waves, which would of course increase the challenge ahead. Medical specialties are doing their utmost to keep up with demand, and will need the ongoing support of NHS England the Department of Health and Social Care to get services back on an even keel.

“In the short to medium term it is likely that doctors will need to further prioritise care, as they have always done, to respond to the reduced capacity levels across the NHS. We also need to be honest with patients that things will take longer and that we are working as hard as possible to restore services to pre-pandemic levels. The public can also play a critical role by following social distancing guidance which will keep Covid-19 infection rates down allowing  services to focus on the recovery of normal NHS business.”