At least £360 million extra funding needed for NHS A&E target

This winter, in order for the NHS to meet its four hour A&E target, at least £360 million may be needed, new analysis has revealed.

Recent measures taken to reduce pressures include an increase in people receiving the flu vaccine, more 111 calls being handled by clinicians, and £100 million of capital investment. These measures may reduce the number of people coming to A&E.

However, the impact of these measures is not yet known, and analysis by the Health Foundation shows that unless the trend of recent years is significantly improved, this winter could potentially see the worst performance against this target since records began in 2004/2005.

The NHS aims to admit, discharge or transfer 95 per cent of people within four hours of arriving at A&E. Hospitals are now struggling to meet this target all year round - not just winter when pressures tend to be worse.

The analysis uses projected trends in A&E attendances, the number of people waiting over four hours at A&E, and the number of those who need admission to inpatient care but wait over four hours for a bed.

The Health Foundation projections predict that around 735,000 people will wait longer than four hours in the last quarter of 2017/18. This would be a 311 per cent increase on winter 2010/11.

This could potentially mean that just 87 per cent of people would be seen and treated within four hours between January and March, which would be the worst quarterly performance since records began in 2004/5. In order to meet the 95 per cent target, an additional 445,000 people would need to be seen and treated within four hours.

Reducing delays requires additional capacity to se people in A&E departments, as well as additional capacity to admit those patients who require inpatient care.

Adam Roberts, head of economics at the Health Foundation, said: “With temperatures already dropping, it seems clear that the NHS will be relying on the hard work of its staff to get it through the additional pressures of winter this year. There has already been substantial action taken, but unless this significantly improves the trend of recent years, our projections give an idea of how much money it might take for the NHS to deliver what the government has asked of it.

“This money might not be best spent in hospitals. Another way to increase hospital capacity is to reduce the number of delayed transfers of care, where people are medically fit to leave hospital but can’t due to delays arranging packages to support their return home.

“Any additional investment would be welcome for this year, but a long-term plan needs to be developed as soon as possible for next year and those after. Winter is not going away.”