Rapid growth in NHS demand, King’s Fund reports

According to the King’s Fund’s latest Quarterly Monitoring Report, the demand of services provided by the NHS has risen further, contributing to increased waiting times and financial pressures.

The report highlighted that over one million patients had been admitted to hospital from A&E in the first quarter of 2016/17, with the number of A&E attendants soaring to almost six million. The figures show there has been an additional 54,000 attendances at A&E departments and a further 14,200 emergency hospital admissions each month.

The data warned that over 90 per cent of beds are occupied by patients at any one time.

The report outlined that: in the first quarter, 9.7 per cent of patients spent longer than four hours in A&E, the highest level at this time of year since 2003/4; at the end of June 2016, 6,100 patients were medically fit to leave hospital but still awaiting discharge; this is the highest number since data collection began and an increase of 22 per cent on June 2015; and the total elective waiting list of patients continues to grow, with an estimated 3.8 million patients waiting for treatment in June 2016; this is the highest level since December 2007.

Furthermore, a survey carried out by the think-tank found: 47 per cent of NHS trusts were forecasting end-of-year deficits and only a third were confident of meeting the ‘control totals’ they have agreed with NHS Improvement; a worrying decline in confidence among commissioners, with twice as many CCGs (23 per cent) forecasting end-of-year deficits than at this time last year; and 40 per cent of NHS trust finance directors and 61 per cent of CCG finance leads are concerned about meeting the productivity targets they have been set this year.

Richard Murray, director of Policy at The King’s Fund, commented: “Hospitals are treating more patients than ever before. Winter usually brings a dip in NHS performance, but what is striking now is that key targets are being missed all year round. This reflects the impossible task of continuing to meet rising demand for services and maintain standards of care within current funding constraints.

“While new investment and actions taken to tackle overspending have reduced deficits among NHS providers in the first quarter of the year, it would be a mistake to suggest that the financial pressures which have engulfed the NHS have eased. Unless more is done to tackle rising demand, the ideas emerging from sustainability and transformation plans about cutting beds and reconfiguring hospitals will look even more unrealistic.”