NHS trusts’ forecast £2.3bn deficit by end-of-year, The King’s Fund warns

NHS trusts’ across the UK are forecasting a budget deficit of around £2.3 billion, according to the latest quarterly monitoring report from The King’s Fund.

The estimate is based on a survey of 83 trusts which found that 67 per cent of trusts, and 89 per cent of acute hospitals, are forecasting a deficit by the end of 2016.

53 per cent of trusts told The King’s Fund that they are concerned they will not be able to meet the new caps on agency staff spending, with 22 per cent claiming the caps could impact their ability to recruit the staff needed for safe levels of care.

The survey found that 64 per cent of trusts are reliant on extra financial support from the Department of Health (DoH) or drawing down their own financial reserves, with more than half of trusts financial directors saying they are concerned about meeting productivity targets.

These findings come as NHS national bodies are imposing stringent financial controls in an effort to reduce the deficit to £1.8 billion by the end of the financial year, and The King’s Fund claims they underline the risk that the DoH will breach parliamentary protocol by overspending its budget.

John Appleby, chief economist at The King's Fund, said: “These findings are further evidence that the NHS is facing a huge financial challenge. Even with the additional funding recently provided by the Treasury and a big switch from capital to revenue spending, it is touch and go whether the Department of Health will be able to balance its budget at the end of the year. At the same time, performance is deteriorating with key targets being missed with increasing regularity and increasing concerns being raised about the quality of patient care. This is shaping up to be a make or break year for the NHS.”