15.3 million on NHS hidden waiting list

New analysis has claimed that the NHS has a ‘hidden waiting list’ of 15.3 million patients who need follow-up appointments for health problems.

Seen by The Times, the calculation finds that the total number who are on hospital books in England and need appointments is 15.3 million, rather than the 3.9 million that the official waiting list suggests.

The official waiting list shows how many patients are yet to have their first hospital appointment after a GP referral. But the total number who are on hospital books in England and need appointments is not collated centrally.

Although the official waiting list, after initial referral by a GP, has remained at a fairly stable level throughout the pandemic, this has been mainly driven by fewer patients joining it. However, long waits have increased, with  the number of patients waiting more than a year standing at 50,536 in June, compared with 1,643 in January, before the pandemic hit.

The new data backs up recent reports of patients struggling to get vital appointments and further demonstrates the health toll that the coronavirus is taking.

The 15.3 million figure was calculated by asking NHS trusts how many patients who needed a follow-up appointment, but were not captured in the official waiting lists known as the ‘referral to treatment’ pathway, were on their waiting lists. One trust in seven replied, and analysts extrapolated the national figure by weighting those trusts’ figures according to the proportion of national GP referrals they received.

Bahman Nedjat-Shokouhi, chief executive of Medefer, which calculated the data, said: “The official waiting list is the tip of the iceberg. However, almost four times the number of patients need appointments, as the official figures capture only the new referrals and not the patients who require ongoing care. We need a plan to deal with both groups to avoid patients coming to harm.”

Responding to the new analysis, Miriam Deakin, the director of policy and strategy at NHS Providers, said: “It’s certainly a concern that many treatments had to be delayed at the height of the pandemic, and trust leaders are keenly aware of how disruptive and distressing this has been for patients. We also know that some patients chose, for a variety of reasons, not to come forward to seek treatment or advice during lockdown in particular, and referrals to trusts have dropped for a number of conditions.

“Trusts and frontline staff are working flat out to restore and extend routine services, and we’re seeing encouraging signs that many are making good progress. It’s really important people seek help when they need it.”