Scientists question easing several lockdown rules at once

Scientists advising the government have warned that the easing of multiple lockdown measures in England at once risks inadvertently boosting the spread of coronavirus.

Many have raised concerns over the halving of the two metre physical distancing rule at the same time as reopening venues, especially given that the UK still has no effective digital track-and-trace system.

On 22 June it was announced that millions of people with underlying health issues would be permitted to leave their homes and mix with groups from 6 July, for the first time in three months. And on 23 June Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave venues from museums to pubs to hairdressers the green light to reopen from 4 July, halved physical distancing from two metres to one metre and said two households could meet up indoors, both also from 4 July.

Some scientists have highlighted research which shows that 97 per cent of super-spreading events, with five or more transmissions, have taken place indoors.

John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said: “The social distancing rules that have been in place since March have had two effects: first, the number of contacts that we make has been drastically reduced; and second the nature of these contacts has also become safer, as we seldom meet inside and we have been maintaining two metres of distance wherever possible.

“Relaxing the two metre rule at the same time as opening bars and restaurants does run the risk of allowing the epidemic to start to regain a foothold. These changes will have to be very carefully monitored and the NHS track-and-trace system will have to be working properly to help keep us safe.”

Susan Michie, a psychologist on a subgroup of Sage, and also a member of Independent Sage, said: “The key thing is that we don’t have a [digital] test, trace, isolate system in place. And I think that’s the reason that the World Health Organization said last week that they thought the UK should not lift any more restrictions. It’s why other countries have one metre because they have other precautions and other systems in place that we don’t have.

“Hospitalisations are not coming down dramatically and the fact that we’ve just had opening of non-essential shops and a range of other things, I think, not the best time to reduce it [the two metre rule].”