NHS braced for worse winter than last year

A new report from NHS Providers has warned that the coming winter is likely to be even more difficult than the last for trusts, staff and patients.

Last year NHS trusts and frontline staff made extraordinary efforts to maintain the quality of services for patients and service users through the winter in the face of a relentless rise in demand for care, compounded by the worst flu strain in seven years. Nonetheless, the quality of care fell short of what the public rightly expects.

Steeling ourselves for winter 2018/19 examines how resilient the sector is to the pressures it will face this coming winter, highlighting areas where the challenges for the coming winter are even greater than this time last year.

Based on published national data and detailed perspectives from trust leaders, the new NHS Providers report sets out the balance of risks and benefits compared with 12 months ago. Factors pointing to better care this year include the impact of £145 million extra capital funding for buildings and equipment and the recent announcement of £240 million extra funding for social care.

However, factors suggesting winter could be worse this time include: continued acceleration in demand for care, significantly outstripping planning estimates; worse A&E performance so far this year; pressure across all other hospital activity restricting ability to prioritise urgent care; greater pressure across mental health, community and ambulance services; higher levels of staff vacancies; and weaker state of social care, even when accounting for the extra £240 million, and more fragile primary care.

Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, said: “As attention turns to what this winter will bring, there are many improvements which have been put in place to welcome. Extra funding for capital projects and additional social care funding has enabled some trusts to better prepare and will provide some help in ensuring patients who don’t need to be in hospital have appropriate care at home or in the community.

“But there are clear warning signs. Performance is in a worse position going into this winter than last. Staff shortages are growing, putting additional strain on a workforce already overstretched during an exceptionally busy summer. The NHS remains under significant financial pressure with the additional funding announced by the prime minister only due to start flowing from next April. And the loss of dedicated winter funding has restricted what trusts can do to prepare for the most challenging time of the year. All things considered, trusts fear that this coming winter will be more difficult than the last.

“We must escape the current and unsustainable cycle of severe winter pressures, which leaves the service playing catch up throughout the rest of the year. The long-term plan represents an opportunity to do this but we must be realistic about what resource is needed, and where it is needed, to meet future demand and recover performance.”