Jeremy Hunt ‘misrepresented weekend deaths data’, says BMJ

Godlee has written to Jeremy Hunt warning that his recent comments have often implied the higher weekend death risk is due to poor staffing. She says that the study, published in her journal in September and used to back the seven-day scheme, does not apportion blame appropriately.

The study has been repeatedly used by Mr Hunt, however his attempts to implement the scheme have resulted in a conflict with the British Medical Association (BMA), which owns the BMJ. The research in question analysed data over the year 2013-14 and identified what it labeled as a ‘weekend effect’ in England and shows over the year there has been 11,000 excess deaths from Friday to Monday.

This data was based on analysis of hospital records, which found an admission on Fridays led to a two per cent increased risk of death compared with Wednesdays, on Saturdays it was 10 per cent, on Sundays 15 per cent and Mondays five per cent.

However, the study did also add that it was not clear how many deaths could realistically be avoided because it did not take into account the factor that parents admitted at weekends often tended to be sicker than those admitted during the week.

The study said it would be ‘misleading’ to conclude all these deaths could have been prevented. In addition, it also said the findings raised ‘challenging questions’ about weekend services that could not be ignored.

The research was carried out by seven leading doctors and statisticians, including Sir Bruce Keogh, the NHS England medical director. After the study was released, Sir Bruce commented that the ‘moral and social case for action is simply unassailable’.

Hunt also spoke about the necessity of the scheme. He said: “The fact that someone is 15 per cent more likely to die if admitted on a Sunday than on a Wednesday is because we do not have as many doctors in our hospitals at the weekends as we have mid-week."

When questioned about the recent junior doctors’ protest, he said: “What we want is to change the balance of pay between weekdays and weekends so we don't force hospitals to roster three times less medical cover at weekends and what that leads to is a 15 per cent increase in your chance of dying if you're admitted at weekends compared to a weekday."

In her letter to the Health Secretary, Dr Godlee said: “I am writing to register my concern about the way in which you have publicly misrepresented an academic article published in The BMJ.

"This clearly implies that you believe these excess deaths are avoidable."

The Health Minister Ben Gummer responded on behalf of Hunt and said: "Significant independent clinical evidence shows increased mortality in our hospitals at weekends linked to reduced clinical cover.

"The BMJ authors themselves acknowledge that - and any debate about precisely how many of the thousands of deaths are avoidable misses the point.

"What all doctors want is to provide the best care for their patients, and the public rightly expect the highest standards whichever day of the week they are admitted to hospital - the government is committed to supporting that."

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