NHS uses sickness data to cope with winter surges

A sickness surveillance system will help the NHS plan for increases in demand this winter by tracking outbreaks of norovirus and other illness around the country.

Data gathered by Public Health England will be used by NHS England to study winter trends and give early warning about rising outbreaks of flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and norovirus as well as other seasonal illnesses.

The findings will enable the NHS to anticipate rises in hospital admissions and produce a planned response by, for example, rescheduling planned surgery in advance to avoid inconveniencing patients as well as free up beds and converting ‘swing’ wards from elective to emergency care for patients with conditions such as respiratory problems.

Outpatient appointments can be switched to ‘hot clinics’ that avoid A&E referrals by providing direct access to GPs and staff can be moved from planned activity to support general medicine, care of the elderly, those with breathing problems or stomach bugs.

Planning also lets hospitals isolate infectious patients rather than unintentionally spreading them around multiple wards, something that is particularly important with the norovirus which causes outbreaks of diarrhoea and ward closures.

The data was first gathered in 2012 to try and predict illnesses that could have impacted the Olympic Games.

Public Health England now carry out a comprehensive daily data collection across GP practices, 111, out of hours GPs and A&Es.

The data will be used alongside other information such as weather forecasts to anticipate demand for the week or so ahead.

The health service has prepared more intensively for winter than ever before. Record levels of flu vaccinations and more joined-up care will enable the NHS to keep frail older people out of hospital.

Keith Willett, NHS England’s medical director for acute care, said: “The impact major outbreaks of these illnesses can have on our hospitals cannot be underestimated – leading to whole wards having to be closed, with the loss of beds just when we need them most.

“We can look at the trends across all of the PHE health data sources and try to anticipate surges in demand.

“The breadth and variety of surveillance data from PHE gives us vital time to put escalation plans in place, to free up beds and reconfigure wards. We can plan how to best provide care to a higher number of patients with a specific illness, and to corral patients who are suffering the same illnesses. It also means we can better predict when things will return to normal and plan accordingly.”

Paul Cosford, medical director at Public Health England, said: “It is widely known that every year we see an increase in illness during the winter, and this means we need to do all we can to support the NHS during this time of increased pressure. Our world-leading surveillance systems can track serious upsurges as and when they’re beginning to emerge and support central coordination of NHS resource.

“Even at relatively moderate temperatures there is nearly a four per cent increase in deaths and nearly a one per cent increase in emergency admissions for every one degree drop in temperature. A combination of Met Office weather alerts and the PHE surveillance data, which includes syndromic data, offers the NHS vital tools for approaching seasonal demand for health care.”