Coronavirus winter wave could be worse than first

Scientists have warned that the UK could see about 120,000 new coronavirus deaths in a second wave of infections this winter.

Modelling a 'reasonable' worst-case scenario, they suggest a range between 24,500 and 251,000 of virus-related deaths in hospitals alone, peaking in the first few months next year.

The report, requested by the UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, stresses that there is still a high degree of uncertainty over how the coronavirus pandemic will play out this winter. This is partly because research tends to suggest that the virus can survive longer in colder conditions and is more likely to spread when people spend more time indoors.

This concern is in addition to the surge in demand on NHS services, as a sense of normality returns and staff begin to tackle the large backlog of hospital operations and treatments put on hold because of the virus. It is believed that the NHS waiting list could reach 10 million by the end of this year.

Stephen Holgate, who chaired the report, said: "This is not a prediction - but it is a possibility. The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter. But the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately."

The report recommends: increasing capacity of the test-and-trace programme, to cope with the overlapping symptoms of coronavirus, flu and other winter infections; getting more people vaccinated against flu; ensuring hospitals and care homes have enough personal protective equipment (PPE); and creating coronavirus-free zones in hospitals and care homes, to halt infections.