Study predicts 1.2 million to have dementia by 2040

New research has suggested that more than 1.2 million people will be living with dementia in England and Wales by 2040, but the prevalence of dementia for each age group is falling.

Published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ), the figures show a dramatic predicted rise, but also highlight the successful work of preventative strategies with the risk of developing dementia for each age group marked as falling. So while the figures indicate that dementia is on the rise, the incidence and prevalence of dementia for each age group is falling.

The figures are formed from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (Elas), a project that began in 2002 and is designed to look at a range of factors affecting people aged 50 and over, including their health, with participants completing memory tasks, solving maths problems and asked about their ability to carry out daily activities.

The recent analysis studied the data from 18,000 men and women collected between 2002 and 2013, from which the researchers combined findings with data from the Office for National Statistics to explore trends in mortality from both cardiovascular disease and non-cardiovascular causes. The data was then fed into a computer-based model to predict figures for those living with dementia in England and Wales in the years to come.

Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, co-author of the research from University College, London, said: “The growth in numbers of cases of dementia is not as large as we once anticipated. But, nonetheless, the growth in the number of people with dementia is substantial. Dementia and cardiovascular disease share risk factors. To be able to get a better picture of the health gains of public health interventions, we need to model them together.”