Up to 12 million could be on NHS waiting list by 2025

Analysis from the National Audit Office has warned that there is a real risk that the waiting list for patients seeking elective care will be longer in 2025 than it is today.

The report claims that the already huge backlog for NHS care in England will keep growing for years and could hit anywhere between seven million and 12 million by early 2025.

Hospitals’ efforts to stop the waiting list soaring from its current 5.83 million will be hampered by the NHS having fewer beds, doctors and other staff, the spending watchdog warned, saying that the health service is already facing an uphill battle to operate on all those awaiting surgery and reduce the long waits for care many people are now facing.

Even in the best-case scenario, the NAO said that the total number of people waiting for a new hip or knee, cataract removal, cancer care or other procedure by the time the next general election is due in December 2024 will still be more than today’s figure, which is the highest on record.

The key to how much progress the NHS can make is how many of the 7.6 million to 9.1 million ‘missing’ patients, who did not seek care during the pandemic until this September, finally do so in the near future. The NAO said that ‘if 50 per cent ‘missing’ referrals return and the NHS can increase activity by 10 per cent more than was planned, the waiting list in March 2025 will still be seven million’.